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Why 'Man Of Steel' And 'Thor: The Dark World' Are The Most Important Films Of 2013

Under normal circumstances, even the biggest would-be tent pole is only financially important so much as it earns or loses money for its respective studio and/or tests the bankability of those in front or or behind the camera.  But there are two large-scale tent poles dropping this year that frankly mean much more to their respective studios than merely whether or not money is made or franchises continue. In their own skewed way, the future of their respective studios rests on their respective successes.
Man of Steel, which opens on June 14,  is arguably Warner Bros’ last chance to prove that they can make the DC Comics stable into their next big franchise.  Watchmen cost too much, Catwoman was a bad joke, Jonah Hex was a disaster, and Superman Returns cost way too much ($270 million) to justify its mostly action-free angst fest.  As the Harry Potter series was ending two years ago, Warner Bros. presumed that they’d merely fill the blockbuster gap with various DC Comics films,  but Green Lantern was not only an artistic disappointment, it was also a near-record flop (it earned $219 million worldwide on a $200 million+ budget).  Meanwhile, Marvel Comics– once a joke in the comic book movie department — racked up hit after hit climaxing with the astonishingly successful The Avengers ($1.5 billion worldwide) last summer.

            

Man of Steel is Warner Bros’ second chance, and arguably their last chance.  Produced by Christopher Nolan, directed by Zack Snyder, and starring a cast that wouldn’t be out of place in an Oscar bait drama (Russell Crowe, Diane Lane, Kevin Costner, Amy Adams, Michael Shannon, etc.), the film is Warner Bros’ best hope at establishing that they can do more with the DC Comics properties than merely turn out Batman films.  If it hits big, they suddenly have options aside from just rebooting Batman.  Do Justice League now? Develop films based on The Flash and/or Wonder Woman?  (I have my thoughts on that.) For the moment the future of Warner Bros’ would-be next golden goose franchise is resting on Superman’s weary shoulders.  If it fails, Warner Bros. will basically have to start from scratch in terms of what to do to fill that Harry Potter-sized gap in their schedule.
Marvel is in a relatively good place right now.  Their Phase One films were mostly big hits and The Avengers was everything they promised five years ago, both artistically and commercially.  Now they have to see how they can deliver with Phase Two.  Iron Man 3 is first up, and its global blockbuster status is guaranteed.  Thor: The Dark World, opening November 8, 2013, is less of a sure thing.  Thor was a popular film, earning $181 million in America and $449 million worldwide, but it was not an out-of-this-world blockbuster. Coming into its second run, it’s the true test of how big Marvel films can be post-Avengers.  It doesn’t have a marquee villain played by a marquee actor (Thor faces off against Malekith the Accursed and Dark Elves of Svartalfheim, played by Christopher Eccleston and Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje, respectively) nor so far any marketing hook beyond “more of the same, only bigger this time.”  That concept worked out fine for Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (which had Moriarty but cast character actor Jared Harris over a big star) and its eventual $543 million global gross, but the Guy Ritchie Sherlock Holmes films are much cheaper to produce (part II cost $120 million vs part I’s $90 million).  Kenneth Branagh’s Thor cost $150 million and The Dark World (helmed by long-time television director Alan Taylor) is costing far more this time around (think $200 million). With no major villain and no major new stars and lacking even a somewhat marquee director (the original choice, Patty Jenkins, would have at least bought the film plenty of free press in the “a woman helms a major superhero film!” variety), Thor: The Dark World will live or die purely by how much audiences like Thor and his respective universe.  It will be a test for how big Marvel franchises that weren’t already mega-blockbusters can go in the wake of The Avengers as Marvel unleashes ‘Phase Two’ and readies Phase Three after The Avengers 2 in 2015.
There are other big films that have token outside importance.  Disney’s The Lone Ranger will be a big test as to whether or not Disney can still create franchise in-house as opposed to banking on Marvel and Lucasfilm for the near future, as most of their post-Pirates of the Caribbean/National Treasure efforts have stalled financially.  Pixar arguably hopes that Monsters University can restore some of their lost luster, having taken critical licks for Cars 2 and Brave, but they’ll be fine in the long run.  The Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy cop-comedy The Heat (June 29th from 20th Century Fox ) has a chance to prove that female-driven genre fare can be just as successful as the proverbial ‘boy films’, and it’s looking like it will be one of June’s biggest hits.  And with the box office failures of Beautiful Creatures and The Host, The Moral Instruments: City of Bones (August 23rd) unfairly bears the burden of proving that female-friendly young-adult literary adaptations can in fact succeed aside from The Hunger Games and Twilight.  But otherwise, the success and failure of a given movie mostly determines the fate of those directly involved. Star Trek Into Darkness will merely continue the Star Trek franchise, little more.  But the two films above hold more than just the success of their respective franchises in their hands, but truly the fate of the studios that produce them.  Superman truly has to save Warner Bros. this summer while Thor merely needs to prove that the Marvel brand is super-powered on its own no matter which hero is wearing the cape.  No easy tasks, but we’ll see…